The LuLac Edition #84, Nov 6, 2006

PICTURE INDEX: THE LATE JOHNNY CARSON AS CARNAC THE MAGNIFICENT. NO POLITICAL PREDICTIONS THOUGH FROM THIS JOHNNY.


COUNTDOWN 1
DAY TO ELECTION

CELEBRITY PREDICTIONS

First, Johnny from Jermyn, here's what he had to say:
Hard to separate what I'd like to see happen from what I think will happen.
Winners: Rendell, Santorum, Sherwood, Kanjorski, Shimkus...and the only shaky prediction there is Santorum. There are people who hate him...but maybe they've never been under the thumb of someone with a grandiose sense of entitlement, riding a family name and who's hard to understand when he speaks because of the size of the silver spoon in his mouth.

PREDICTIONS

Everyone is making them, so here goes. So will I, here are the key races and percentages plus the ever important reasons why:

GOVERNOR

RENDELL 59%
SWANN 41%
Governor Ed wants to increase his margin of victory and will use that win to advance his career nationally. Katherine Baker Knoll or a reasonable facsimile of finishes out the term.

SENATOR

SANTORUM 50%
CASEY 50%.
Call me nuts but this one will turn out to be close. Santorum wins by less than five hundred votes.

U.S, HOUSE 11th DISTRICT

KANJORSKI 62%
LEONARDI 38%
With no money and little help, Leonardi pulls a respectable vote against a powerhouse.

U.S. HOUSE 10TH DISTRICT

SHERWOOD 50%
CARNEY 50%
Sherwood squeaks this one out, barely. The negative ads backfire and newspaper endorsements help. A razor thin margin of 400 votes.

STATE REPRESENTATIVE (121rst)

KATSOCK 52%
PASHINSKI 48%.
Katsock’s non stop campaigning, tenacity, knowledfge and tight message strategy pays off. Everyone likes Eddie but doesn’t know where he stands.

120th DISTRICT

MUNDY 80%
CORDARA 20%
Coradara comes on the scene too late. To beat a multi term incumbent, you have to present yourself sooner.

119TH DISTRICT

YUDICHAK 80%
SIEMINSKI 20%
Yudichak pointed to his achievements, his opponent seemed to complain that he wasn’t John. Came across as bitter, partisan old guy with nothing better to do.

118TH DISTRICT

CARROLL 56%
TATU 44%%
This might be closer because of the size of the district and the Pocono presence in it. But Carroll takes it with a majority out of the old third district stronghold which served Tom Tigue and Ray Musto so well.

117TH DISTRICT

BOBACK 75% NICHOLS 25%...Boback in a route. Both did little campaigning.

SCRANTON AREA

SHIMKUS AND KEN SMITH WITH OVER 80% OF THE VOTE.

NATIONALLY

DEMS CARRY THE HOUSE BY 20

DEMS JUST MISS THE SENATE

SENATE WINNERS
MENANDEZ (NEW JERSEY)
BROWN (OHIO)

LIEBERMAN (CONN.)

TESTER (MONTANA)
McCASKEY (MISSOURI)

STEELE (MARYLAND)
CHAFEE (RHODE ISLAND)
SANTORUM (PENNSYLVANIA)
CORKER (TENNESEE)
ALLEN (VIRGINIA)

COLOR CODE DEMS BLUE, GOP RED, INDEPENDENT GREEN.

TV AD REVIEWS

THE BEST (statewide:)
SANTORUM: Funny, engaging, kept your attention, did best to humanize the Senator.

THE WORST (statewide)
SWANN: Never said much, slick but didn’t inspire you. The best ad with the Rendell cut out was pulled for no reason.

THE BEST (local)
PASHINSKI (121rst district): Clever juxtaposition of various citizens giving key talking points with candidate closing at the end. Very effective editing and clever concept.
THE WORST (local)
MACNAMERA (20th Senatorial district) Confusing graphics, too busy, not enough details on candidate’s personality. Made me want to call him to explain my taxes to me.

HONORABLE MENTION
KANJORSKI AND YUDICHAK, TV ads steered by long time consultants Ed Mitchell (Kanjorski) and Jim McNulty (Yudichak). Very good and professional as always.