The LuLac Edition #532, August 6th, 2008

PHOTO INDEX: CONGRESSMAN PAUL KANJORSKI AND HIS FOE IN THE 11TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, LOU BARLETTA.

THE 11TH

Last night I had the opportunity to be on WYOU TV's Interactive Newscast and I felt like one of the major flip floppers of all time in my discusion with the host Eric Scheiner. This race is just an entire series of contraditions that sometimes it is hard to stay consistent in your presentation. Here's what I mean.

We have a 12 term incumbent who has not had a stiff electoral challenge in terms of money and durable candidate since 1986. Even when Mark Holtzman brought in all the big guns of the GOP, like Ford, Reagan, Bush, etc., Kanjorski dispatched him easily. In 2002, Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta challenged the Congressman and was beaten by 14 percentage points and a 20,000 plus vote margin. Through the years, Kanjorski has brought home millions of dollars for his district including money for renovations for the VA Medical Center, the Flood Control system and numerous other projects. So given all of that, why is Kanjorski in trouble? My answer was that the national perception is that he is in trouble in the district. But if you look at his fundraising numbers, the Democratic machine and sheer voter registration edge the Dems have, the ineptitude of the Republican parties in both Luzerne and Lackawanna counties plus his core group of supporters, you'd be hard pressed to think he'll have a tough time. But yet in this year's race, there's an undercurrent going on against Kanjorski. Ironic since this seems to be a Democratic year but also a time of change trumpeted by the Dem nominee Barack Obama. In the WYOU TV web poll, in many calls to talk shows, life long Dems have said they will foresake Kanjorski in favor of Lou Barletta. And they name as a factor the Cornerstone Technologies issue. This is the 11 million dollar federally funded project that had some of the Congressman's relatives employed. A few years after it started, it went bankrupt. Barletta advocates and even his lukewarm supporters site this as a reason why Kanjorski should go. There seems to be nothing else held against him except this issue, and the mantra that it is time for change in the District. The latter is hysterical for the 11th given the fact that Dan Flood served nearly 29 years without interruption until his resignation. This district does not do change in almost all of its elections. Yet the Barletta people have jumped on the perception that the national media says it's time for a change and that the Congressman did something askew with Cornerstone. Plus Kanjorski's old friend Mr. Yudichak has not helped any with his own national exposure on Fox TV. It seems to me that the Kanjorski camp needs to hit the Cornerstone issue head on. Yes there was federal money, and yes there were relatives employed and yes it went under. But they need to add that, no, there was no ethics violation, no indictments, no evidence of wrong doing and no formal or informal slap on the wrist by the important Appropriations people in D.C. This needs to be said because if it is not, this undercurrent of negativity will bring the perception into a sad reality. That reality being that an underfunded, charismatic but new comer to the national scene who has used one divisive issue to get there, immigration, can defeat a multi term Democrat in what seems like a Democratic year. The question the Kanjorski people need to ask is this: if, with a Democratic majority in place, just how will Lou Barletta help the District if he becomes the new Congressman? Think Nancy Pelosi is going to embrace him and give Barletta a tour of her old Baltimore neighborhood?

Looking back, in 1980, Ray Musto lost to James Nelligan because of the Reagan landslide but also because he faced about 6 other candidates in a Democratic primary. (Including Kanjorski and his media man Ed Mitchell) By the fall, the Dems were too exhausted or divided to rally behind Musto for a united front. In 1982, Attorney Frank Harrison won in the General Election over Jim Nelligan and seemed poised for a long run. He was even groomed by House Speaker Tip O'Neill in Foreign Affairs. That caused him a problem because while he was on a foreign trip, a water quality problem broke out in the 11th District. In the 1984 Democratic primary, Frank Harrison was defeated because of the perception that he cared more about foreign countries than he did his own district. That wasn't the reality but it was the perception. The victor in that race, Paul Kanjorski, ignored the reality and beat the perception of Harrison's situation over the head of voters in the District. Now 12 terms later, the Congressman's people should realize in this perception driven race being run by Barletta and the National GOP, "what perception giveth, perception can taketh away".

NEW POLL

Solid margins among women, minorities and young voters have powered Barack Obama to a 6-percentage-point lead over John McCain in the presidential race, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Tuesday.
Obama is ahead of his Republican rival 47 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, the poll showed. The survey was taken after the Democratic senator had returned from a trip to Middle Eastern and European capitals, and during a week that saw the two camps clash over which one had brought race into a campaign in which an Obama victory would make him the first African-American president.
McCain, the senator from Arizona, is leading by 10 points among whites and is even with Obama among men, groups with whom Republicans traditionally do well in national elections. He has a 17-point lead with white men and was running strongly among married men, rural residents and white evangelicals.

The new poll, while good news for Obama also points to the fact that given the tough economic situation this country is facing, he should be doing much better on a national basis. And let us not underestimate the residual power of the Clintons who seem miffed that a significant olive branch has not yet been extended to them for the convention in Denver. If Obama thinks he can win without making nice with the Clinton wing of the party, it will be a huge mistake.

By the way, the Obama campaign opens up local headquarters Thursday night at 7:00PM on Kidder Street in Wilkes Barre.