Wednesday, January 04, 2012

The LuLac Edition #1887, January 4th, 2012

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.


Even though 8 votes separated Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum for first place in the Iowa Caucuses, I have to say that former Senator Santorum was the big winner. As late as days before Christmas, Santorum was polling in single digits. All of a sudden a surge started toward Santorum. Santorum who never got any respect throughout the campaign and debates did an old fashioned type of retail campaign where he spent time with various voters. Santorum worked hard holding more than 400 campaign events and virtually lived in Iowa. For his reward, voters gave him a big boost from his also ran status.
Romney in Iowa stagnated. True, he got nearly 30% of the vote but so too did Santorum. Romney basically did not grow electorally. He almost got the same amount of votes (he got 29 more in 2012) than he did in 2008. For someone who says he could be a winner and beat President Obama, well that might be a problem.
Santorum and Romney go to New Hampshire and battle it out. Their campaign victory speeches were a contrast in styles and energy. Santorum’s speech was emotional and touched his audience. Santorum already in this Presidential bid possesses a Reagan like quality. You might disagree violently with what he says and believes, but you can’t help but be drawn to his personal story. Romney on the other hand gave a technocratic, merchandising speech that reminded me more of a Project Manager than a potential President.
Ron Paul hit his high water mark but you know his star is already on the decline.
The big question mark in this race is going to be Newt Gingrich. Mitt Romney’s strategy of using PAC money to go after Newt Gingrich in Iowa might have destroyed the former Speaker’s chances in the corn fed state. Strategically it was smart. But it will hurt Romney in the long run. A political rule of thumb is you don’t go after someone who will carry a grudge. And Gingrich is steamed about the way the Romney people singled him out in Iowa. In his speech, Gingrich praised Santorum, not Romney. Plus Gingrich told CBS News that he was going to go after Romney in New Hampshire with the 9 million bucks he raised this last quarter. Gingrich said he was going to “compare and contrast” their records. That can only hurt Romney.
The GOP needs to find it’s post Bush voice. It certainly was not John McCain. It might be a contrast between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. This race reminds me of the 1964 race where moderates like George Romney (Mitt’s dad) Bill Scranton and Nelson Rockefeller just never got the passion of the party. Barry Goldwater did. Santorum would be wise to emulate not Goldwater but the man who gave a speech for the Arizona Senator, Ronald Reagan. This thing can be Santorum’s if he does three things:
1. Stay out of the Romney/Gingrich fight.
2. Stay positive and not get testy with the media.
3. Keep your humble/under dog/middle class roots narrative going.
The last part is extremely important. The GOP might be perceived as the party of the rich but there are many more of the 99% in the party than the rich. The reason why people in the party, particularly the Tea Party segment don’t like Romney is because he is part of the 1%. The rich. The GOP, thanks to Ronald Reagan has had a migration of people from the middle class who used to be Democrats. They left their party because of cultural issues. Santorum can fill that gap primarily because he can personalize his beliefs better than Romney.
New Hampshire is going to be interesting.


At 6:06 AM, Anonymous Professor Milburn Cleaver, OPA said...

Students, First off, welcome back and a happy new year to you all. I am certain that you are as happy to be a part of this morning's lecture as I am delivering it. You may interpret that any way you wish.
The business of this classroom goes forward.
If anyone expresses surprise at the results of the silly Iowa caucuses they are misleading themselves. Iowa is nothing but a mere example of a "sweeps" period for political programmers.
With all due respect to Mr. Yonki (and I do hold respect for him), New Hampshire shall NOT be a surprise. Governor Romney will take the state and take it easily.
Mr. Santorum, for all his conservative grandeur, is not equipped with the funds to carry on a relevant contest with the former Governor.
I have stated time and time throughout my lectures this past year that Mr. Romney will be the nominee of the party and and that the election in November shall be his to lose.
FOr all the experts who wrote him off time and time again, a second place showing in Iowa by Romney (and the contest is so close that the results can change to a Romney victory by this afternoon) practically guarantees the role of standard bearer.
Gingrich imploded, Bachmann, the unstable Ron Paul and let us not even speak of poor Mr. Huntsman who polled less than 700 votes.
SO, class let me state once again (since most of you are still coming off of your New Year's hangovers):
Something to think about this morning.
Class Dismissed!!!!!!!!!!!!

At 7:40 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Santorum (Sanitarium)
is the Anti-Christ:
CREW’s Most Corrupt Members of Congress:
Members of the Senate:
• Conrad Burns (R-MT)
• Bill Frist (R-TN)
• Rick Santorum (R-PA)

At 9:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Santorum compares to Reagan?
No offense Dave, but did you foresake the Tab for bourbon last night???
The magic of Reagan was that he appealed to all factions--Democrats REpublicans and Indys.
There is no way that Santorum is going to appeal to Dems and Indys. And I'll be honest, despite the fact that poor Alan Colmes had to apologize for telling the truth about that creepy infant story, it actually does creep out most people who aren't evangelicals.
Santorum has about as much chance of even being competitive in New Hampshire as do I.
This race is over and the media knows it...they just need hoopla to keep it going.

At 12:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It doesn't matter how Santorum did in the cornfields, he is just about finished. The right wing Christian nut faction gave him his vote, not gonna get the same reception in New Hampshire.

At 3:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "The LuLac Edition #1887, January 4th, 2011":

Whats it prove besides that the religious right hasnt figured out or doesnt care that Santorum is a big phoney in a field of big phonies. At least (edited) Sue Henry will be happy, but beyond that nothing changes except Rick who is sort of from PA gets a boost for a little while!
I'm goin to work now and just happy to have a lousy job. Its all bullshit and its going to go on for months yet and then President Obama gets reelected.

At 3:18 PM, Blogger David Yonki said...

A few things about the anti Santorum comments. I understand your concerns but Santorum has always been under rated and underestimated. He wasn't supposed to win when he ran for Congress, he wasn't supposed to beat Harris Wofford. The Christian right will overlook a lot (Reagan in the 80s) if they feel right about a candidate. The guy yesterday did extremely well in his victory speech. Only voted for him once in my life but speaking from a political strategy standpoint, he has a better shot than most. Also, his campaign manager in New Hampshire is a native from that state. With Gingrich attacking Romney, Santorum has a perfect opportunity to state his case. A close second place finish can propel him into South Carolina. As they comment from the Mid Valley, "I'm just saying...."

At 4:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As always, good thoughts, sound judgement, you are above and beyond the best thinker in this area regarding politics.

At 5:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The phony professor stated mater of factly that Romney would destroy Ricky ..... I'm still laughing.

At 4:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Neither Mitt Romney nor Rick Santorum will ever be president. One is uninspiring and there's a vault of video clips of him stating different positions on the same issues for the past 20 years. The other is way outside the mainstream; and in fact, is outside the mainstream of the fringe, so he's unelectable. There's a reason we kicked him out of our Senate seat.

Congratulations to President Obama on his second term!


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