The LuLac Edition #1887, January 4th, 2012

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

SANTORUM’S WIN

Even though 8 votes separated Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum for first place in the Iowa Caucuses, I have to say that former Senator Santorum was the big winner. As late as days before Christmas, Santorum was polling in single digits. All of a sudden a surge started toward Santorum. Santorum who never got any respect throughout the campaign and debates did an old fashioned type of retail campaign where he spent time with various voters. Santorum worked hard holding more than 400 campaign events and virtually lived in Iowa. For his reward, voters gave him a big boost from his also ran status.
Romney in Iowa stagnated. True, he got nearly 30% of the vote but so too did Santorum. Romney basically did not grow electorally. He almost got the same amount of votes (he got 29 more in 2012) than he did in 2008. For someone who says he could be a winner and beat President Obama, well that might be a problem.
Santorum and Romney go to New Hampshire and battle it out. Their campaign victory speeches were a contrast in styles and energy. Santorum’s speech was emotional and touched his audience. Santorum already in this Presidential bid possesses a Reagan like quality. You might disagree violently with what he says and believes, but you can’t help but be drawn to his personal story. Romney on the other hand gave a technocratic, merchandising speech that reminded me more of a Project Manager than a potential President.
Ron Paul hit his high water mark but you know his star is already on the decline.
The big question mark in this race is going to be Newt Gingrich. Mitt Romney’s strategy of using PAC money to go after Newt Gingrich in Iowa might have destroyed the former Speaker’s chances in the corn fed state. Strategically it was smart. But it will hurt Romney in the long run. A political rule of thumb is you don’t go after someone who will carry a grudge. And Gingrich is steamed about the way the Romney people singled him out in Iowa. In his speech, Gingrich praised Santorum, not Romney. Plus Gingrich told CBS News that he was going to go after Romney in New Hampshire with the 9 million bucks he raised this last quarter. Gingrich said he was going to “compare and contrast” their records. That can only hurt Romney.
The GOP needs to find it’s post Bush voice. It certainly was not John McCain. It might be a contrast between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. This race reminds me of the 1964 race where moderates like George Romney (Mitt’s dad) Bill Scranton and Nelson Rockefeller just never got the passion of the party. Barry Goldwater did. Santorum would be wise to emulate not Goldwater but the man who gave a speech for the Arizona Senator, Ronald Reagan. This thing can be Santorum’s if he does three things:
1. Stay out of the Romney/Gingrich fight.
2. Stay positive and not get testy with the media.
3. Keep your humble/under dog/middle class roots narrative going.
The last part is extremely important. The GOP might be perceived as the party of the rich but there are many more of the 99% in the party than the rich. The reason why people in the party, particularly the Tea Party segment don’t like Romney is because he is part of the 1%. The rich. The GOP, thanks to Ronald Reagan has had a migration of people from the middle class who used to be Democrats. They left their party because of cultural issues. Santorum can fill that gap primarily because he can personalize his beliefs better than Romney.
New Hampshire is going to be interesting.