The LuLac Edition #2245, October 28th, 2012
ELECTION 2012 PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTION PART 1
Last week we told you we would be presenting our Presidential prediction. We are prepared to do that with one caveat. Since this election is changing daily in terms of the polls, we will revisit this prediction next Sunday. The only reason why I want to do that is in case there is a shift in the last week. In at least two elections in my lifetime, the last week provided a shift that blew the race wide open. An example that comes to mind is the 1980 race between President Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. The other race that changed was the ’88 race where George H.W. Bush opened up an impressive lead over Michael Dukakis. A lot can happen in this race in the next 8 days. If there is movement, here’s why it will happen.
1. Voters who were lukewarm toward President Obama just might shift viewing Governor Romney as a better alternative when it comes to the economy. Voters not thrilled with the President might start to move if they view Romney as someone who could do no worse than President Obama. A lot will hinge on the unemployment figures that come out the Friday before the election.
2. Although it hasn’t been mentioned much, there is the Bradley factor. That term comes from Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley who was regarded as a shoe in for Governor of California. Bradley, a black man was well regarded and the polls showed him winning big every time. But he lost each time he ran for Governor. It was later revealed that people talking to pollsters lied because they did not want to be seen as racists. There might be people telling the pollsters they will vote for Obama but really have no choice or Romney.
3. President Obama’s is having difficulty hitting the 50% margin in key states. That is horrible news for an incumbent. You usually want to have an incumbent over 50%. In states like Virginia and Colorado, Obama can’t get past that magic mark. If that trend continues, there might be a move toward Romney much like there was a move toward Reagan over Carter in 1980. Even though the polls showed them close the week before, by the last weekend before the election Reagan was ahead to stay. So, when we revisit this next week, we’ll see whether my prediction needs to be modified. I’ll be appearing on the L.A. Tarone Radio Show on WILK at 1PM if you want to talk to me about it.
Here is a break down of the states that I think will vote for Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. (I have given the swing state of Florida to Romney and Nevada to Obama. ) The LuLac Electoral breakdown has a very close race.
Ohio is going to be key. It can be the path to 270 for either man at this point in the race. BUT what type of lift will it be to get to 270?
If Obama wins Ohio, he gets to 271. If he loses Ohio, he needs a maximum of three states to win the Presidency.
If Romney wins Ohio, he needs a maximum of two states to win the Presidency. If he loses Ohio, even if he wins the rest of the states, he comes in at 267.
2. History and the Hillary factor. Many people forget that during the 2008 primaries, Hillary Clinton’s dope of a campaign manager, Mark Penn made a strategic blunder in not competing in the caucus states. Clinton came on like gangbusters toward the end of the campaign. But it was too late because Obama sewed up more votes. Obama won the nomination by a scant 102 committed delegate votes even though Clinton got more popular votes than he did in the primary.
3. The Obama campaign will win because of their ground game in key battleground states. This targeted method of finding committed voters and getting them to the polls is set up in those states. They aren’t designed for a landslide, just enough to get a win.
So for the fifth time in American history, the presidency will go to a candidate who did not win the popular vote.
In 1824, John Quincy Adams lost the popular vote to Andrew Jackson.
In 1876, Samuel Tilden won the popular vote against Rutherford B. Hayes, but Hayes beat Tilden by a single vote in the Electoral College.
In 1888, incumbent president Grover Cleveland beat challenger Benjamin Harrison in the popular vote, but lost a to a landslide Harrison victory in the Electoral College.
And in 2000, Al Gore lost Florida and the presidency when George W. Bush beat him in electoral votes despite a close win for Gore in the popular vote.
And as of today, that’s how this long, torturous race will end in 2012.