The LuLac Edition #2245, October 28th, 2012
ELECTION 2012 PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTION PART 1
Last week we told you we would be presenting our Presidential prediction. We are prepared to do that with one caveat. Since this election is changing daily in terms of the polls, we will revisit this prediction next Sunday. The only reason why I want to do that is in case there is a shift in the last week. In at least two elections in my lifetime, the last week provided a shift that blew the race wide open. An example that comes to mind is the 1980 race between President Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. The other race that changed was the ’88 race where George H.W. Bush opened up an impressive lead over Michael Dukakis. A lot can happen in this race in the next 8 days. If there is movement, here’s why it will happen.
1. Voters who were lukewarm toward President Obama just might shift viewing Governor Romney as a better alternative when it comes to the economy. Voters not thrilled with the President might start to move if they view Romney as someone who could do no worse than President Obama. A lot will hinge on the unemployment figures that come out the Friday before the election.
2. Although it hasn’t been mentioned much, there is the Bradley factor. That term comes from Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley who was regarded as a shoe in for Governor of California. Bradley, a black man was well regarded and the polls showed him winning big every time. But he lost each time he ran for Governor. It was later revealed that people talking to pollsters lied because they did not want to be seen as racists. There might be people telling the pollsters they will vote for Obama but really have no choice or Romney.
3. President Obama’s is having difficulty hitting the 50% margin in key states. That is horrible news for an incumbent. You usually want to have an incumbent over 50%. In states like Virginia and Colorado, Obama can’t get past that magic mark. If that trend continues, there might be a move toward Romney much like there was a move toward Reagan over Carter in 1980. Even though the polls showed them close the week before, by the last weekend before the election Reagan was ahead to stay. So, when we revisit this next week, we’ll see whether my prediction needs to be modified. I’ll be appearing on the L.A. Tarone Radio Show on WILK at 1PM if you want to talk to me about it.
Here is a break down of the states that I think will vote for Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. (I have given the swing state of Florida to Romney and Nevada to Obama. ) The LuLac Electoral breakdown has a very close race.
253 OBAMA (20 STATES)
California, (55) Oregon, (7) Washington, (12) Nevada, (6) Hawaii, (4) New Mexico, (5) Minnesota, (10) Illinois, (20) Michigan, (16) Pennsylvania, (20) New York, (29) New Jersey, (14) Maryland, (10) Delaware, (3) Rhode Island, (4) Vermont, (3) Connecticut, (7) Maine, (4) District of Columbia (3) Wisconsin (10) and Massachusetts (11).
235 ROMNEY (25 STATES)
Alaska, (3) Idaho, (4) Montana, (3) Wyoming, (3) Arizona, (11) North Dakota, (3) South Dakota, (3) Kansas, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Texas, (38) Louisiana, (8) Arkansas, (6) Mississippi, (6) Alabama, (9) Georgia, (16) South Carolina, (9) North Carolina, (15) Tennessee, (11) Missouri, (10) Kentucky, (8) Indiana, (11) West Virginia (5) Utah, (6) Nebraska, (5) and Florida, (29).
SWING STATES (5) Five remaining swing states:
Colorado, (9) Iowa, (6) Ohio, (18) Virginia, (13) New Hampshire, (4). Ohio is going to be key. It can be the path to 270 for either man at this point in the race. BUT what type of lift will it be to get to 270?
If Obama wins Ohio, he gets to 271. If he loses Ohio, he needs a maximum of three states to win the Presidency.
If Romney wins Ohio, he needs a maximum of two states to win the Presidency. If he loses Ohio, even if he wins the rest of the states, he comes in at 267.
So, all that stated, Barack Obama will win the Electoral College vote and Mitt Romney will win the popular vote. Here’s why:
1. Romney is way ahead in his red states. The Obama campaign has virtually abandoned their grassroots efforts there. Romney will win very big pluralities in these states. It will increase his popular vote total. 2. History and the Hillary factor. Many people forget that during the 2008 primaries, Hillary Clinton’s dope of a campaign manager, Mark Penn made a strategic blunder in not competing in the caucus states. Clinton came on like gangbusters toward the end of the campaign. But it was too late because Obama sewed up more votes. Obama won the nomination by a scant 102 committed delegate votes even though Clinton got more popular votes than he did in the primary.
3. The Obama campaign will win because of their ground game in key battleground states. This targeted method of finding committed voters and getting them to the polls is set up in those states. They aren’t designed for a landslide, just enough to get a win.
So for the fifth time in American history, the presidency will go to a candidate who did not win the popular vote.
In 1824, John Quincy Adams lost the popular vote to Andrew Jackson.
In 1876, Samuel Tilden won the popular vote against Rutherford B. Hayes, but Hayes beat Tilden by a single vote in the Electoral College.
In 1888, incumbent president Grover Cleveland beat challenger Benjamin Harrison in the popular vote, but lost a to a landslide Harrison victory in the Electoral College.
And in 2000, Al Gore lost Florida and the presidency when George W. Bush beat him in electoral votes despite a close win for Gore in the popular vote.
And as of today, that’s how this long, torturous race will end in 2012.
posted by David Yonki @ 1:55 AM
11 comments
11 Comments:
I agree with you Dave, and I think Ohio will go for Obama. I think the people of that state are smart enough to realize what Romney wanted for them versus what the President did do for them regarding the car industry.
Bruce J. Simpson
Why is it only liberals bring up race? I rarely hear a conservative discuss Obama's skin color. Most are upset with his policies and apparent lack of leadership and direction.
I think the discussion was important in the last election. But president Obama proved that America was ready to elect a black president, what they are unwilling to do is reelect an incompetent president.
My Predictions: your states are all accurate, and the tossups are going to break down like this:
Ohio - Obama, he's led in the majority of the polls there for a while.
Colorado - Obama, there's a ballot initiative that a driving tons of Democratic turnout.
Florida - Romney.
N. Carolina - Romney
Virginia - the only true toss up. Either way but I would say it depends on turnout. If the south and central areas turn out, then Romney. If the north turns out, Obama will win.
Nevada - Obama. Latinos, Latinos, Latinos.
And New Hampshire - Obama. Same as Ohio.
IN RESPONSE
Why is it only liberals bring up race?
BY LIBERAL, DO YOU MEAN ME? AND I JUST BROUGHT IT UP BECAUSE IT COULD BE A FACTOR.
David, your prediction seems more like an ad for Romney. Why world anyone with any knowledge of the candidates think he would be best for the economy? The man made a fortune closing and bankrupting solid companies that were undervalued. He has untold wealth invested off shore so why is he thought to be a job creator. His "former" company Bain Capitol is moving Sensata that employs 170 people to China where they will pay $.99 cents per hour wages and the company HQ will be in Bermuda. People who think Romney is divested in Bain must be smoking bad dope. His finger prints are all over Bain. The man simply will not be good for America or Americans. He can't make a decision and has argued more sides to each issue that there are sides. Why didn't you mention the privatization of Social Security or Medicare being made a voucher program? Most people I know consider these two issues the top of the reasons why not to vote for Romney. Second to all of that is his insistence in killing the "Death tax" which only affects the wealthy and not the common person. And his IRS plan is to continue big tax breaks for the wealthy. How is this good for America?
IN RESPONSE
David, your prediction seems more like an ad for Romney
THIS IS RICH. NOW PEOPLE ARE THINKING I'M FOR ROMNEY. THIS SITE DOES HAVE OPINIONS. AND I'VE ALWAYS SAID THAT OBAMA (EVEN THOUGH HE NEVER WAS MY FIRST CHOICE) WOULD BE BETTER FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS, IN SHORT BETTER FOR AMERICA. BUT LULAC AND DAVID YONKI ARE SEPARATE. THIS IS THE ONLY BLOG THAT POSTS 80% ORIGINAL CONTENT. WHILE I'VE NEVER CLAIMED TO BE A JOURNALIST, I DO TRY TO PRESENT WHAT IS HAPPENING ON A STORY. AND THAT'S ALL I WAS DOING HERE. THIS RACE IS SO TIGHT THAT THERE WAS NO WAY I WAS GOING TO PLAY GAMES WITH THE NUMBERS AND BE SO OFF THE MARK IT WOULD STRAIN CREDULITY.
Why world anyone with any knowledge of the candidates think he would be best for the economy?
I AGREE BUT IN TWO RECENT POLLS ROMNEY WAS SEEN BY A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS TO DO A BETTER JOB AT FIXING THE ECONOMY THAN THE PRESIDENT. I BELIEVE THE ECONOMY IS ON THE UPSWING BUT WE ARE A NATION OF INSTANT GRATIFICATION. AND THE BUSH YEARS REALLY HURT THIS COUNTRY. I SAID IT BACK IN 2005 TO A LETTER TO THE EDITOR, THIS COUNTRY WILL BY PAYING FOR THE INCOMPETEACCE OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WELL INTO THE 2060s. IF ROMNEY GETS ELECTED, HE MIGHT VERY WELL BE BLAMING BUSH AS WELL FOR HIS TROUBLES.BUT THE FACT IS AMERICANS THINK ROMNEY CAN DO BETTER IN THIS RESPECT. JUST ANOTHER FACTOR IN MY ANALYSIS.
Liberals bring up race and get it out on the table and discussed. Conservatives keep quiet and if possible would still own slaves.
Maybe thats the explanation. Dont try to tell me some folks in this country ever accepted a black man as President! Many in my own family couldnt and didnt, but if you mention racist, they go nuts and telll you they are not. Christian conservatives long held that Mormon was not a real religion
but seem to have put that aside. I believe all religions are cults and the Mormons are no different.
At the same time I believe everyone has a right to their beliefs. I am an agnostic, but I'd bet I treat my fellow man the way I'd like to be treated myself or at least try my best and in my own way I am a better christian than most professed christians.
JP
Wow. Great job. I may not agree with your thoughts but you work like bastard to pride some very good insight. This isn't a navel gazing blog, this is downright reporting and opinion. I wish the Poconos were part of LuLac land.
"BY LIBERAL, DO YOU MEAN ME? AND I JUST BROUGHT IT UP BECAUSE IT COULD BE A FACTOR."
You Christ Mathews, Rachel Maddow, Eleanor Clift, Larry O'Donnell.
Liberals bring up race because they are excuse makers. Are there racist in this country, of course there are, both liberals and conservatives, republicans and democrats. But bringing it up is done to use it as an excuse for poor leadership over the last 4 years. I don't care about the president's race, religion, gender or sexual orientation. I care if he or she is effective and this one, sadly, has not been.
So, if Romney takes the popular vote and Obama wins the Electoral----do Rush and Hannity do a 180 flip, saying Romney should be the victor????
Will the GOP lawyers take it to the USSC and will the court find a "legal" way to rule the Electoral College unconstitutional>>??????
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