Tuesday, February 09, 2016

The LuLac Edition #3141, February 9th, 2016




Bernie Sanders won a resounding victory over Hillary Clinton. A few key takeaways;
Sanders scored big with youth and even bested Clinton by double digits with women.
However among register Democrats, the voting was pretty much dead even.
Sanders won most of his support by drawing Independents. The upcoming states are going to be closed primary states so you may not see that again. New Hampshire allows Independents to show up on the day of the election, register for the party that they want to vote for in the primary and then change back again. That doesn’t happen most everywhere else. I mean it’s like a Catholic deciding to become a Jew on the day they pick the High Rabbi. It is ridiculous.
Both Clinton and Sanders gave long speeches. Best line of the night came from Kasich who said Bernie talked so long he was going to hit his 77th birthday. It's only the start of a long campaign. They both should have saved their energy.



Donald Trump now has political legitimacy, The billionaire has won his first primary. Now the polls are now reality. That's a good thing for his candidacy. Look for him to launch into the rest of the primaries more confident. His victory speech was humble, his thanking all of his family was very revealing and the speech while campaign boiler plate was short and sweet.
Ohio Governor John Kasich came in second and gave a realistic speech that was extremely refreshing. Kasich has a closed window in the next few weeks until the Industrial state primaries. He'll do well there but will be hard pressed to battle against the more conservative members of his party. Look for Kasich to try and discredit Bush in South Carolina.
Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush tied essentially for third. Some would say it was a come down for Cruz but he never really campaigned there. The tie is a credit to his organization and supporters.  This win was  a boost for a Bush candidacy that was left for dead just a month ago. Both Cruz and Bush have the money to stay in the race and compete.
Marco Rubio and Chris Christie brought up the rear.
The bottom line is this. Donald Trump stands alone as a candidate. The so called establishment lane now has a series of competitors that are looking for the chance to go one on one with Trump. The sheer volume of alternative candidates can only help Trump. Look for more infighting and attacks on Trump.
But as long as there are multiple candidates competing for a lane against Trump, he stays king of the road.
Chris Christie Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson need to reassess their candidacies.


At 7:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sanders comes away with Iowa with pretty much a dead heat, and trounces Hilary in NH.
Sanders is raking money in small donations.
The rest of the primaries will be interesting.

At 7:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Joe Biden's ass must be red, swollen and a deep bruise must be forming.
I'm sure he is not the only one kicking himself right now.
The Veep would have crushed the vote.

At 7:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yonk, you told us about Kasich!!!!
Let's see if he can get to the midwest.

At 8:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Question, since this is a primary, and different states have elections at different times, can Biden still get in the mix?

At 9:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are right about the independents, but you left out, that with this type of showings with the independent voter, Sanders becomes more electable in the general.
So, many dems, who view the primaries as more than just the candidates running, but who will represent the party in November, may no lean toward Sanders.
It is still too early to call, of course, but the first two states are demonstrating that dems, who are more free thinking than republicans, are looking for an option other than who the party establishment has decided to bestow the victory upon.

At 9:40 PM, Blogger David Yonki said...

Question, since this is a primary, and different states have elections at different times, can Biden still get in the mix?


Most states have a 60 day filing window before the primary date. Since the SEC primary is in early March and Super Tuesday is in the middle of that month, the only places I can see him entering would be the May or June primaries. Oregon, California, New Mexico, South Dakota and New York.
Those states may not be in play for Biden if Clinton wins a string of states like she did in '08 against the President.
Clinton lost the nomination by 300 delegates and they all came from the caucus states.
I feel the only path for Biden is to enter a big primary like California and present himself as an alternative at the convention if it is close to a deadlock.


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