Saturday, November 03, 2012

The LuLac Edition #2251, November 3rd, 2012

Battleground, not just a game or phone ap when it comes to this election. 


According to my most recent calculations, in my estimation there are still only five states left that are going to decide this election. Colorado, (9) Iowa, (6) Ohio, (18) Virginia, (13) New Hampshire, (4) are in play this final weekend. A total of 50 Electoral votes holds the fate of the Presidency in its clutches. We reached out to people we knew in the five states up for grabs. LuLac just asked each one of them to give a brief synopsis of where the race is going. Here are their reports.


Ron Ungvarsky 

Obama is up over Romney by a little more than the margin of error (3-4%). The tide seems to be shifting back in the President's favor but we are experiencing an unprecedented barrage of ads from outside players---NRA, Chamber of Commerce, NFIB, Crossroads GPS, Coal producers, etc. It is too soon to see the effects of these spots. Obama has promised and a delivered over 300 volunteer organizers and daily tracking by Senator Brown's operation says the early voters are breaking heavily in favor of the Dems. This factor means that the big outside money push for Romney is playing to smaller and smaller pools of potential swing voters. Don't underestimate the legal battles successfully waged by the Democratic party and the ACLU to restore early voting hours that were cut by our Republican Secretary of State John Husted. This, more than anything else, could represent most of the eventual margin of victory for Obama and Brown. I was in Toledo yesterday and while the Obama/Brown presence in the city was great, on the back roads in the rural counties, you would be hard pressed to find any Obama support or signs. 
The Senate race is much tighter. Brown's lead is down to 1-2% and the ratio of pro Mandel to pro Brown TV ads is about 2 to 1. The Brown campaign is promising 65-75 volunteer organizers to in place and functioning by the weekend. I've been in Ohio since 1998 and I have never seen so many yard signs for any major election. It is clear that enthusiasm on both sides in running high. Reports are that the Obama and Brown campaigns are working well together that means almost 400 volunteer coordinators pushing for Democratic candidates. The Brown/Mandel race is much tighter than it should be. Unprecedented amounts of outside money has kept Mandel in a race that should not be within striking distance. Brown has spent $24,000,000+ to date and is hoping to raise another $6,000,000 by Election Day. Carl Rove has targeted this race for the last 4 months and the commercials, both TV and Radio, are ceaseless. The final week will see the increased involvement of John and Annie Glenn. He shot one for Obama and it has been running for the last ten days and he and Annie are rumored to have an extra special commercial in the can for Senator Brown to be used in the final days of the campaign. 
On the lighter side, Brown has had an array of rock stars come through Ohio for his campaign. I attended a private concert with Jackson Browne for his longtime supporters two weeks ago. Springsteen made several appearances in northeast and northwest Ohio for Brown and rumor has it that he will be back one or two more times before election day. The safest prediction I can make---Both Presidential Candidates will wake up in Columbus,Ohio on Election Day prior to starting their marathon cross country swings.
The most speculative prediction not directly associated with Ohio---look for red state Governors to play politics with flood repairs and power restoration post Hurricane Sandy if it helps stifle or suppress voters in Democratic areas.


Susan Fraley 

My adopted state is gaining attention in the closing days of the 2012 Presidential race: Iowa is rural and has a large white population (93 percent, according to census data), with an economy that has been well insulated from the recession. So the message of jobs, jobs, jobs doesn’t really resonater like say in Ohio. We really shoot our load in the early psart of a campaign with the Iowa caucuses. National media focus sometimes trails off as the campaign trail wears on. To my surprise, it seems that Iowa could play an imperative role on Election day where candidates have spent a disproportionately large amount of money for the state’s small number of electoral votes. I think organization is going to be the key here. Don’t forget, Iowa in effect launched Barack Obama in 2008 and he never really dismantled the organization. Conversely, Romney only has 14 Iowa field offices that are aligned with Republican committees have only a fraction of the staff on the ground that their Democratic opponents have at their disposal. This is still close with Obama leading the GOP challenger Mitt Romney, 50 to 45 among likely voters. The Romney campaign believes that they are outperforming their goal in Iowa although this isn’t necessarily guarantee a sweep for the Republican, because there  is a very large number  of blue collar counties located in the southeast. Those tend to go Democratic. I’m looking at a Obama win, but not by much. Maybe 51 to 49 or God help us, 50-50 with just hundreds of votes separating the winner.


Oliver Collier II 

Virginia is divided into two economic areas. Public sector workers and private sector workers. Northern Virginia has been strong for the President but he can’t seem to break 50% here. That is going to be a problem for him. Don’t forget, he won Virginia in 2008 and broke a 40 year streak for the GOP. So having Virginia come up aces again is going to be very dicey for Obama. Ironically, the Senate race between George Allen, Junior and Tim Keane might drive the Presidential race. This race is going to be very, very tight. I think the Senate candidates just might provide the coattails for the Presidential candidates. Right now, Romney is ahead 52 % to 48% and I can’t see that changing. I love the President but he won’t win here. Not this time, history won’t repeat itself.


Jane Anne Kostiak 

We are shocked here in the Granite State at how much attention we are getting. Our time to shine is usually in the winter. But the race is so close, we are a factor. Governor Romney looks at us as his alternative to the drubbing he most certainly take in Massachusetts. I’m told we are part of the East Coast/Mid Atlantic strategy. The Carolinas, Virginia, and then us. That gives him 39 in the East if he can’t get Pennsylvania. That may sound small, I mean if you combine Ohio and Pennsylvania but it is nothing to sneeze at. Plus Romney is making two stops here and then ending his campaign here in Manchester. I think if one state is going to go with Romney, it might be New Hampshire. And those puny four votes just might mean something. I’m still kind of stunned by that. Proud but stunned.


Jim Gibson

Like in much of the rest of the country, the presidential race between President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney in Colorado could not be tighter. However, Obama’s superior ground game will make the difference, putting over the top by a point or two.


At 3:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dave, take a look out into right field, you might see Gov Shristie taking a hard look at the Republican party and think he would be better off as a moderate/conservative Democrat. He has more in common with Obama than he does with any other national politician. I have considered Obama as a moderate from day one. If he wasn't, Obama Care would have been a single payer program. I predict Chris moving to the "D" team ... if he does, I'll be in celebration mode.

At 9:43 AM, Anonymous Canio Costanzo said...

Awesome column Dave. Really enjoyed the reports from other states. Best political website in Pennsylvania!


Post a Comment

<< Home