The LuLac Edition #2252, November 4th, 2012

The Keystone State. 

PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIX? 

Can it be that Pennsylvania is in the mix this late? The Romney campaign has poured some money into the state and the Obama campaign has followed suit. Romney will make a stop in the Philadelphia area later today. But he will concentrate on those suburbs in the Philly area that for years were moderate Republicans. More than a few of them turned Democratic to help Ed Rendell win two terms as Governor. The Romney strategy seems to be to concentrate on that area to keep the Democratic vote down and rely on the innate Conservatism of the western part of the Commonwealth to try to steal the state in case Ohio doesn’t go their way. I believe they are emboldened by the polls that show they are in striking distance in Pennsylvania and want to take a shot. From personal experience I know that local leaders will prevail upon a national campaign to get a candidate into their area. In the ’84 Mondale/Reagan race, County Chair Joe Tirpak lobbied for a Mondale appearance and he got it the Friday before the election. Maybe the Pennsylvania GOP has promised more foot soldiers for turnout if Romney does a stopover. It’s been 24 years since a Republican candidate for president won Pennsylvania. That was the ’88 Election where H.W. Bush won the Keystone State. MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough calls it “fool’s gold” when the GOP invests in Pennsylvania. One school of thought holds that the Romney people know it’s in trouble in Ohio and has to make up those electoral votes in order to snag a win But what if the Romney camp is so confident that it is trying to increase its margin of victory, could that be possible? Or can they smell a little blood from the Obama camp? Ed Rendell has said that the state is closer than people think and I think he is right. The Obama people need Pennsylvania to keep their electoral strategy intact. Jill Biden and Bill Clinton plan to make appearances here. Clinton in Scranton on Monday if his voice holds out. This race is so close no one on either side wants to look back at Pennsylvania and say, “If only we…………..” You fill in the blanks.

LULAC PREDICTION 2/THE FINAL 

Okay, we went through our data and stick with our prediction. We first thought Hurricane Sandy might have stopped the race and froze it. That didn’t happen. We still give Florida to Romney and Nevada to Obama. What we reported last week pretty much remains the same. Here’s why: Here is a break down of the states that I think will vote for Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. (I have given the swing state of Florida to Romney and Nevada to Obama. ) The LuLac Electoral breakdown has a very close race. 

253 OBAMA (20 STATES) 

California, (55) Oregon, (7) Washington, (12) Nevada, (6) Hawaii, (4) New Mexico, (5) Minnesota, (10) Illinois, (20) Michigan, (16) Pennsylvania, (20) New York, (29) New Jersey, (14) Maryland, (10) Delaware, (3) Rhode Island, (4) Vermont, (3) Connecticut, (7) Maine, (4) District of Columbia (3) Wisconsin (10) and Massachusetts (11). 

235 ROMNEY (25 STATES) 

Alaska, (3) Idaho, (4) Montana, (3) Wyoming, (3) Arizona, (11) North Dakota, (3) South Dakota, (3) Kansas, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Texas, (38) Louisiana, (8) Arkansas, (6) Mississippi, (6) Alabama, (9) Georgia, (16) South Carolina, (9) North Carolina, (15) Tennessee, (11) Missouri, (10) Kentucky, (8) Indiana, (11) West Virginia (5) Utah, (6) Nebraska, (5) and Florida, (29). SWING STATES (5) 

Five remaining swing states: Colorado, (9) Iowa, (6) Ohio, (18) Virginia, (13) New Hampshire, (4). 

Ohio is going to be key. It can be the path to 270 for either man at this point in the race. BUT what type of lift will it be to get to 270? If Obama wins Ohio, he gets to 271. If he loses Ohio, he needs a maximum of three states to win the Presidency. If Romney wins Ohio, he needs a maximum of two states to win the Presidency. If he loses Ohio, even if he wins the rest of the states, he comes in at 267. So, all that stated, Barack Obama will win the Electoral College vote and Mitt Romney will win the popular vote. Here’s why: 
1. Romney is way ahead in his red states. The Obama campaign has virtually abandoned their grassroots efforts there. Romney will win very big pluralities in these states. It will increase his popular vote total. 
2. History and the Hillary factor. Many people forget that during the 2008 primaries, Hillary Clinton’s dope of a campaign manager, Mark Penn made a strategic blunder in not competing in the caucus states. Clinton came on like gangbusters toward the end of the campaign. But it was too late because Obama sewed up more votes. Obama won the nomination by a scant 102 committed delegate votes even though Clinton got more popular votes than he did in the primary. 
3. The Obama campaign will win because of their ground game in key battleground states. This targeted method of finding committed voters and getting them to the polls is set up in those states. They aren’t designed for a landslide, just enough to get a win. 
So for the fifth time in American history, the presidency will go to a candidate who did not win the popular vote. In 1824, John Quincy Adams lost the popular vote to Andrew Jackson. In 1876, Samuel Tilden won the popular vote against Rutherford B. Hayes, but Hayes beat Tilden by a single vote in the Electoral College. In 1888, incumbent president Grover Cleveland beat challenger Benjamin Harrison in the popular vote, but lost a to a landslide Harrison victory in the Electoral College. And in 2000, Al Gore lost Florida and the presidency when George W. Bush beat him in electoral votes despite a close win for Gore in the popular vote. And as of today, that’s how this long, torturous race will end in 2012.

Your Survey, Your Say logo. 

FINAL LULAC POLL RESULTS MONDAY 

We'll give you the final results of our LuLac Presidential Election poll Monday night. We'll be up on line after 9PM.