Monday, November 07, 2016

The LuLac Edition #3344, November 7th, 2016


Very strong for Trump and expect the state to go for him. Iowa people are very conservative and think Trump has better values than Clinton. The night before, it looks like Trump. 

Incumbent Ron Johnson has not been much help to the Trump campaign because of his race with former Senator Russ Feingold. The state went for Cruz in the primaries, state officials are helping but not overwhelming. Moderate and even George W. Bush supporters are either staying home or voting Clinton. We give this to Clinton.
The state might have a real chance to go straight Democratic for three times in a row in this century. Clinton is slightly up in the polls and the Democrats have been doing well in getting the vote out. But the GOP is closing in. This will be very close but look for Clinton to get by.
Conventional wisdom says the Hispanic vote should crush Trump but there are many transplanted elderly basking in the sun, who are living on the government dime who seem enamored of Trump. Too close to call even if the experts are saying Clinton. I say Trump.
The people in Ohio are pissed because they think the manufacturing jobs they have now will leave. Governor John Kasich is pissed because he has built his reputation as a Governor on improving the economy in the state. Donald Trump’s vitriolic rhetoric has diminished that legacy.
Clinton is up by 1% as of Sunday but as a friend told me it will be a nail biter. The unknown factor here is that Kasich is rock solid in his intention to not dispense any organizational tools to the 88 GOP county organizations. Trump as we all know is not great on a ground game.
The joke among many people is that Clinton has been to the state so many times she might be eligible to pay a state income tax. In my gut I think the working class angst will carry Trump who might win the state but lose the election. Trump in Ohio by a whisker. (No feline jokes please). .
Black turnout is high. So too are the organizational forces supporting incumbent Governor Pat McCrory and Senator Richards Burr.  His signing of the Public Facilities Privacy & Security Act, which legislated that in government buildings, people may only use restrooms that correspond to the sex on their birth certificates, has stirred up the transgender community.
But it also has solidified his base. Meanwhile Senator Burr who has held up the recent Supreme Court nomination and is speaking of holding the Court 4-4 hostage if Clinton is elected. He is in a very tight race too. Turnout will be key and the one who wins this might be on the way to the White House.


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