Sunday, July 08, 2012

The LuLac Edition #2118, July 8th, 2012

Jobs under scrutiny. 


One thing about a Presidential election in the dog days of summer is that there is no lack of speculation on the race. Every nuance is watched and commented upon. A prime example was the jobs report that came out on Friday. More than 80,000 new jobs were created but that has been looked at as a failure because it is not keeping pace with what economists were forecasting. Okay, I get that but contrast that with the fact that in President Obama’s first month in office, 800,000 jobs were lost. Plus in the latter months of the Bush administration, no new jobs were created. So that really puts some things in perspective. Is the economic recovery as robust as it should be? No. But consider this. How much better would this economy have been if this President went bigger with the stimulus? How much better would this economy have been if the “job creators” actually invested in the economy instead of using the health care bill as an excuse for not knowing what the future held? See, that argument falls short because business people live to make a profit. It’s what they do. And that’s a good thing. It gets people to work. But would these intrepid investors be so scared of adding jobs just because of a health care bill that doesn’t take effect until 2014? See, if they were so serious about helping America and by extension the economy, they would have already done it. But Democratic administrations pass regulations. Regulations like fair credit card reform and making sure that business owners treat their workers fairly. Mitt Romney says he is going to get America back to work. But so far there are no specifics except that he is going to let the 1% keep their Bush era tax cuts and will help create jobs like he did with Bane. What type of jobs is open to conjecture. One of the big Romney success stories of Bane was Staples. One of the big Obama success stories was the auto industry. Compare the salary of a Staples employee with that of an auto industry worker whose job was saved because there was a bailout. (The money by the way was paid back). Every election has a defining moment when an intelligent voter hears or sees something that pushes them in one way or another. For voters this year that moment will come. In 2008, I was a Hillary backer and was lukewarm about handing over the Presidency to an individual that was in the U.S. Senate as long as it took him to find the keys to the men’s room. Despite the ludicrous pick of Sarah Palin, I was thinking about McCain. But in a debate, both men were asked about the housing crisis and how it impacted the average American. Obama spoke of the average guy who was trying to hold onto his home by a thread and said that someone like that should be looked after. McCain talked about someone he knew that had five rental properties and how the housing crisis would affect them and their future opportunities to acquire more. One candidate looked to the needs of a struggling individual trying to hold on to what they have, the other worried about the person who had more than others and how they might be impeded from getting more. In this election, there will be a defining moment like that for voters. The efficacy any job number will be trumped by the most basic question a voter will have to answer about any Presidential candidate: can he relate to my problems and what I am struggling to hold on to?


At 6:04 AM, Anonymous Pope George Ringo said...

Good post. I must admit that this election sometimes keeps me up at night.
I have to disagree and say that it will probably come down to job numbers. People who are unemployed are really not concerned about what the stats were when Obama came in. They just want a job.
And with all understanding, they are desperate...
I do truly feel that this economy is ready to bounce back at any time and it has been growing but slowly. It will really take off very soon.
My greatest fear is the Romney will win when this occurs and get the credit.
If anyone has HBO there is a great new series called "The Newsroom". Jeff Daniels plays an anchor and in the first fifteen minutes he goes off on a rant about America today. I realize it is a fictional program, but his statements ring true. Check it out.
Bless You All.

At 9:47 AM, Anonymous Professor Milburn Cleaver, OPA said...

Good morning,
I hope you are all doing well after the very hot weekend. No doubt, a weekend spent in some dark barroom or pool hall consuming untold numbers of liquour or drugs. I myself enjoyed a little golf and a most delicous lobster dinner at my club whilst discussing the issues of the day with the more proper element.

The business of this classroom goes forward.....

I do not find it surprising that once again Mr. Yonki submits a paper on the job numbers. As an expert in the field, I can tell you that they will decide the election.
Mr. Obama is an a quandry. In all honesty, if I were advising the President (a position I have as much chance of holding---or wanting--- as that of a Santitation worker---you may laugh), I would advise him in no uncertain terms to NOT debate Mitt Romney.
When an incumbent President (aka, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush) who is in economic trouble debates his opponent, it is the equivalent of a amatuer boxer going against a professional heavyweight. Mr. Obama in these debates will try to make Romney the issue, but as Steward of the nation for the past four years, he cannot avoid being the issue. All Gov. Romney need do is to present himself as competent to hold the office---that is all. ANd even you ingrates will agree that he is that much ( even if you detest the man).
Incumbent Presidents are defenders of their record in re-election contests--whether they want to be or NOT.
There is not much for the President to defend. Stagnant job growth, a foreign policy that is a debacle, no vision, no clear cut policy on whether he supports or decries our war in Afganistan.
When Jimmy Carter finally agreed to debate Ronald Reagan in1980---less than a week before the election, his lovely wife Rosalynn warned him not to. Carter, believe it or not was still ahead in the polls. Watching that debate on the fall evening, I knew ten minutes into it that Carter was doomed. Following the debate Carter looked stunned....remaining at the podium. Reagan, the tall, handsome "rescuer" came over to the podium to shake the President's hand. Carter seemed to be tied up in the microphone wire...he quickly shook the Governor's hand and that was that. Carter knew he lost that eveing.
SO, the question is NOT will President Obama lose. The question is by how much will he lose. I predict a sweep of all the midwestern states and the upper new England region, not to mention Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
The debates will have been the deciding factor....I look forward to them. And I urge you all to watch.
Something to think about this morning....
Class Dismissed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

At 12:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The money was paid back? Yes, that is an accurate statement, for the restructured GM, but there is money owed from before, plus the fact that the U.S. Gov't is holding a large block of stock; which is no guarentee that it will either get back the money or make a profit. Perhaps by usining Romney methods, they will, but you wouldn't like that.
GM should have been allowed to declare bankruptcy. They would have emerged genuinley stronger, with a lot less debt and maintaining ownwership and responibility, not the propped up company as they are now. But if they did, then those union contracts may have been voided, which means that there may have been less union money to o'bama. explains alot doesn't it?

At 8:01 AM, Blogger Aggie95 said...

Well lets see they say we have to create 125,000 jobs a months just to stay even with population growth. So last month we were just 45,000 jobs short of staying even ....except for 1 thing .....800,000 ILLEGAL ALIENS now need jobs as well so in 10 months at 80,000 jobs a month we will have them covered. As far as Businesses not hiring because of the obamatax bill well if you look at the 21 new taxes imposed many of them affect businesses and then their is the cost to the states which will be picking up part of the tab for the increase in medicade spending a good deal of which will be paid for out of state coffers Missourri for example they estimate that could be 100 - 150 million a year who pays ...we all do. and that cost is not figured into the federal governments cost. So these businesses know they are about to be whacked by increased taxes and fees at both the state and federal level. And all the money was not paid back sorry and obamna screwed the stock holders of GM and Dodge but the unions did indeed make out pretty well and I have to question did obama save the auto industry or did he save the unions which as a set aside also happened to save the Auto industry. I suspect he saved the unions afterall they gave him a great deal of money in 08 ,..... he owed them BIG. LOL obama 2012 state of the union he I.D. those who caused the housing crash which everyone agree's led us into this mess he said and I quote " We learned that mortgages had been sold to people who couldn't afford or understand them " well obama himself sued citibank back in the 90's to force them to make just those loans ...funny and I really don't need a president to be concerned about my personal issues ....I figure if he does what he needs to do for the nation my well being will look after itself but thats not what obama is doing is it yonk .....he has set quite the steady course pandering to every special intrest group in the country

At 11:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My dearest professor. I would advise you to investigate a website called They take an average of all recent polls conducted, and, if the election were held today, based on the hard numbers, Barack Obama would carry Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida by a hair. Romney would carry Missouri and North Carolina. Leading to a total of 332 electoral votes for the president, and 206 electoral votes for Mr. Romney.

If you are too lazy to read the numbers for yourself, let me break it down for you:

Ohio: Obama 46.2, Romney 43.6 (Obama +2.6)

Virginia: Obama 47.5, Romney 44.5 (Obama +3.0)

Florida: Obama 46.7, Romney 45.0 (Obama +1.7)

Iowa: Obama 46.5, Romney 44.0 (Obama +2.5)

North Carolina: Obama 45.5, Romney 46.8 (Romney +1.3)

Colorado: Obama 47.2, Romney 44.2 (Obama +3.0)

Nevada: Obama 49.3, Romney 44.0 (Obama +5.3)

Missouri: Obama 43.5, Romney 46.5 (Romney +3.0)

Wisconsin: 47.5, Romney 44.0 (Obama +3.5)

Michigan: Obama 46.5, Romney 44.7 (Obama +1.8)

Pennsylvania: Obama 47.5, Romney 39.5 (Obama +8.0)

New Hampshire: Obama 48.7, Romney 43.0 (Obama +5.7)

To conclude, I believe your prediction of "Obama will lose, but by how much" might be a little mistaken. Perhaps you should consider retirement, so you can focus on your country club golfing and lobster tail dinners - I worry for your health after the stress of a Romney loss in November. I do advise you to look on the bright side: Perhaps in 2016 you can pick a new, more viable candidate?

Unless Andrew Cuomo runs. Then, you'll have to wait another four years. .....Maybe eight....


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